Considering our world’s fast-changing geopolitical landscape and Israel’s horrific actions over the years and particularly since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023, I doubt Israel can survive much longer. I can’t predict the future, but I find the trajectory of Israel’s recent moves indicative of a great demise.
Factors Leading to Failure
First, when it comes to its geographical position, Israel is in a losing demographic situation. Its population will likely never surpass that of Palestinians and certainly not that of Middle East Arabs. In Israel, there are 7 million Jews and 1.9 million Arabs, i.e. Palestinians. An additional 5.5 million Palestinians live in the occupied territories. Outside these borders, Arabs number approximately 450 million, including 7 million Palestinians in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Europe and the United States. However, only about 7 million Jews live in America and Europe.
Second, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the general Israeli population have shifted from the support of a two-state solution and instead want to create a Greater Israel — defined as Israel and the Palestinian territories — where Jews will be first-class citizens and others, including Muslims and Christians, will be second-class citizens. However, they know a one-state solution under current demographics, with a 50 percent or higher non-Jewish voter base, won’t allow a Jewish nation to survive. As a result, Israel has turned to brazen ethnic cleansing, driving Palestinians out of their homes and cities, forbidding their return, and, finally, committing genocide. This leads to a third problem. Israel is pushing its agenda hard, but in our modern age, with social media and live streaming, their agenda is on full display for the world to see.
Considering these factors, coupled with the resolute and courageous character of the Palestinians, it’s no wonder that despite Israel’s scheming, violent occupation, and controlling of the narrative for 75 years, it hasn’t gained a firm grip on the occupied land or full control of those living there.
Its Own Worst Enemy
Despite this, Israel’s arrogance and defiance demonstrate that it views success through a different lens, namely its strong economy, the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia’s plan to recognize Israel, and most importantly, its influence on American politicians and policymakers, as well as significant control of U.S. media. However, the U.S. is a democracy, and policy will shift when popular support changes. What’s more, there are signs this shift is happening fast—particularly among young people.
In the world geopolitical hierarchy, America is still the superpower and enjoys unparalleled influence. However, its unflinching support of Israeli brutality, be it militarily or in the United Nations Security Council, has significantly damaged America’s global standing. Coupled with misguided military campaigns over the past decades in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and various Latin American countries, unquestioned support of Israel has damaged the American brand, one earned through two world wars when the U.S. stood against colonialism and fascist regimes. Now, its influence is declining, and nations like South Africa, China, Russia, Turkey, and India are seeing theirs grow.
Negative Public Perception and Missed Opportunities
Other factors are also weakening Israel’s position. The Holocaust engendered great sympathy for Jewish people and for those who created the modern nation of Israel. However, the past year-plus assault on Gaza has been a horrific exposé of death and destruction and has shifted sympathy from Israelis to Palestinians, with live streaming of massacres and wanton destruction shocking people worldwide.
A press release on the website of the UN Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner notes that the International Court of Justice ruling on July 19 of this year, “declared that Israel’s occupation of the Gaza strip and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, is unlawful, along with the associated settlement regime, annexation and use of natural resources. The Court added that Israel’s legislation and measures violate the international prohibition on racial segregation and apartheid. The ICJ mandated Israel to end its occupation, dismantle its settlements, provide full reparations to Palestinian victims and facilitate the return of displaced people.” This ruling cuts to the very heart of Israel’s latest campaign of destruction in Gaza and the West Bank, discrediting all justifications for its lethal rhetoric and actions. Finally, Muslim countries, while not very influential, are returning to the world stage with economic, technological, and military powers, all factors likely to influence global policymaking.
Of course, one could argue Israel can simply course correct, right? After all, if the issues noted above are leading to Israel’s demise, it could just change policy and avoid any negative consequences. Perhaps, but it is not likely. In my mind, Israel squandered a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity after the Hamas attack when images of invasions of homes and women being taken as hostages to Gaza horrified the global community. Had Israel worked to investigate war crimes committed that day and focused on freeing hostages through negotiation rather than genocide, I believe they would now enjoy worldwide support. But that’s not what happened, and as a result, support for Israel has dwindled, and Netanyahu is largely to blame.
Flawed Leadership
The Israeli Prime Minister is shrewd, leading his country on a wild ride. He’s logged successes, including strong economic development and political recognition from nations both Muslim and non-Muslim. He has weakened Palestinian leadership by corrupting leaders, fueling divisions, slowly destroying the West Bank with settlements, containing Gaza in an open-air prison, and, most significantly, creating an illusion of security and stability in Israel.
However, over time he’s became more arrogant, autocratic, and defiant of opposition. Like other autocratic leaders, he’s lengthened his political life by weakening or controlling democratic institutions. He’s also succumbed to corruption and is scheduled to testify in court when his trial resumes in December, as he is charged with fraud, breach of trust, and bribery. Meanwhile, the Israeli population has become more extremist, leading to radical politicians gaining prominence. Netanyahu’s ambitions, successes, and the real possibility of facing up to ten years in jail have pushed him to a point of no return.
The U.S., led by President Joe Biden, made it worse. Biden, an ardent supporter of Israel and self-proclaimed Zionist, has supported Israel throughout his political career. Naturally, when Hamas attacked Israel and Israel retaliated, Biden stood firm in his support for his long-time ally, even when it became clear that Israel intended a widespread destruction of Gaza with a death toll mounting by the day. But Biden isn’t the only U.S. politician to unfailingly support the Jewish state. Due to AIPAC’s influence on American politicians, it’s nearly impossible for a politician to attain and keep office without the blessing of the lobby. Its power means Israel can do nearly anything it wants without repercussions and with little pushback.
Dim View of Israel’s Future
Looking forward, how does Israel’s current aggression play out over the next few years? It’s decades-long PR campaign has demonized Palestinians, and for many the killing of non-combatants, even women, children, and the elderly, seems justified. They’re viewed as “collateral damage” because, supposedly, Hamas and Hezbollah used them as “human shields.” Powerful nations, particularly America and some in Europe, buy into this narrative thanks to media propaganda. However, the unprecedented rise of news consumption via social media has made it increasingly difficult for Israel to hide its atrocities.
Consequently, the tactic of labeling anyone who criticizes Israel or sympathizes with the Palestinians as an anti-Semite is weakening, despite it working well for decades. Recently, the global consciousness has shifted, recognizing Palestinians’ legitimate right to self-determination and calling out the apartheid state. As horrors in Palestine remain at the forefront, this trend will continue in Europe and America, driving a dramatic change in public opinion and, ultimately, in government policy. It’s already happening in Ireland and Spain, and to some extent in the UK and the U.S.
Israel’s actions today may significantly diminish any sympathy it still enjoys and possibly spur a resurgence of anti-Semitic sentiment in Europe and America. Should this happen, it could force U.S. presidents to rethink their unflinching support, both in the UN Security Council and by the military aid it provides to Israel.
If the current hostilities escalate, the ethnic cleansing in Gaza and the West bank and/or between Israel and Lebanon, there could be bloodshed for millions and even a possible WWIII. Is there any way to avoid this? In my view, Israel must accept a two-state solution with a viable Palestinian state. If that happens, Israel may survive. Many Jews in America already understand this, and more are coming around to this position. However, Israel is not only making life difficult for Jews in their own state, but it also is creating an unsafe environment for Jews worldwide. The sooner Israelis understand this, the better for their fellow Jews everywhere, and the sooner a major impediment to peace in the world might be resolved.
